Tuesday, March 27, 2007

What India should do?

So, what BCCI will do now? That’s one question crossing every Indian cricket fan. That’s a positive sign for corporate!!! Indian can’t quit thinking about cricket. Right now we have 50 million opinions in India. I am also one of them.

I will again go back to my old point that I discussed after Indian debacle in South Africa. BCCI goes for a short term solution or a long term solution.

India is not short of talent in Cricket but our cricketers lack character. A character is built in adversity and competitive environment. Our institution of domestic cricket is ordinary. It may create good players who look good on Indian pitches but it can’t give you a strong character unit like Australia.

Would you like to see an organization run by people who are part time members and the organization generates close to $1 billion revenue per year? I don’t think any management thinking or any sensible individual will endorse to the view the way our sports organizations are operating on a day-to-day basis. Probably this attitude explains number of Olympic medals won by this 1 billion population country in last 60 years.

The reforms must start from BCCI. Government should stop recognizing BCCI as an autonomous body. It was created to promote Cricket in India which has been accomplished. Now, this body should be dismantled.

Instead government should create a corporate body responsible for cricket. If possible, this corporation should be listed in Share market but government should not become the owner. I guess many corporate will be interested in acquiring the ownership and it can be decided by a fair and comprehensive process.

The corporation should be responsible for overall development and administration of cricket. As I believe this corporation will be governed by able professionals and India have plenty of excellent leaders and managers who will be interested to work for this organization. Listing it on share market will boost people’s interest in share market and at least one crore more investors will join share market which will be definitely better for our bourses. India has currently approximately 4 crore people out of 100 crore who invest in equities either directly or through other various financial instruments.

The domestic cricket structure needs a major boost. I watch Ranji trophy and other domestic tournaments on Neo sports and it tells the true level of cricket competitiveness and standard. BCCI has least bothered to attract people to watch these games. The key lies here. Once you attract people to these games, the competition and character will start coming to teams.

The number of teams should be limited. Not more than 4 or 5. The new corporation should ensure a time period when this tournament will be held and participation of top cricketers must be mandatory.

This also calls for pitch reforms. The pitches for these matches should be fast and varying in nature. Then you have a domestic infrastructure in place to select top 15 players.

The team selection process should be changed as well. You have 3 selectors who decide the team and then the captain…not other way round. Had this been the case, Ganguly would have been out of the team after 2003 world cup and many individuals who cried after Srilanka game would have been playing either domestic cricket or county cricket in England.

These are sweeping reforms. People at top hate reforms in this country. This reform may take time to settle and produce results but it will ensure that we don’t feel ashamed after each tour of South Africa and Australia.

Listing the corporation on share market will ensure accountability to the public and public will feel a part of Indian cricket. At present, fans (the customers of BCCI) are last consideration for BCCI. If you don’t believe it, buy a one day international ticket and enjoy your experience in the stadium. It is pathetic right from ticket purchase to last ball bowled.

Now, let’s look at our current team. This team has performed pathetically in every foreign tour from West Indies to South Africa to Malaysia (except Pakistan). It has performed badly in champion trophy. That performance should have been enough to draw attention but we start reacting when water goes above the head and breathing becomes impossible. We wait and wait till the situation becomes worst.

The game at top level is played by character and attitude, talent becomes secondary because every team has plenty of it. The tough character comes through difficult experiences…at least not when you hit knee-roll high balls to boundary 40 times a day in a Ranji trophy game against a weak opposition. You may be given opportunity to open Indian innings in test match in Australia after scoring triple century against Tripura but nobody remembers your name thereafter. I was talking about Devang Gandhi.

One typical case is Mr. Agarkar who even after 183 one day matches looks mediocre on many days. He performs once in a while and claims his place back? Why? Because we simply don’t have enough players or we don’t believe them good enough to replace Pathans and Agarkars. Murali Kartik is gone… he could have been definitely a good replacement for Anil Kumble and Ramesh Powar for Harbhajan Singh! Alas! We are so obsessed with brands that when it comes to crunch tournaments, we go by brand names rather than current form. Pathan selection is a typical example…he was selected and not selected…both are true. These men at BCCI are so confused!!!

India needs fresh blood and confident men who believe in destroying opposition and in hanging on 50 overs on any pitch. My next captain is Yuvraj; he has played more than 150 one dayers and has enough experience. Rahul Dravid may be retained in the team as a batsman, but not Ganguly, Shehwag and Tendulkar. Mohd Kaif should be back as vice captain.
BCCI has more data and information to select rest of the team. Munaf Patel and Sreesaanth should be retained. Rest of the lot should decide what they want to do next in life.
You may disagree with my team but my emphasis is on reforms and selecting 11 men who believe in themselves to beat any team on any pitch and they do it day-in and day-out. Even if, everybody in this country agrees to my reform agenda, we will take at least 5-6 years to produce results. Australians were patient…they invested close to 10 years to become number 1.

You may also take a deep breath after reading and say “come on – it is just a game!” You are also right.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Inflation, Infrastructure and Defeat

1) Inflation refuses to die. It is becoming a structural or systematic problem rather than a one-off issue. The Indian economy is growing over more than 8% annually but our infrastructure growth is not able to keep pace. Our capacity is restrained with respect to demand leading to price rises.

RBI should not keep squeezing liquidity in the system. The top policy makers should device a law for lending money but they should not suck liquidity across the board. This will kill the growth. I think RBI governor should be convinced by now that merely squeezing the liquidity will not control inflation. Let Agriculture and other ministries wake up and take appropriate measures to control inflation.

Controlling inflation through short-term methods will aggravate the problem in the long run and remember, we are paying a cost for it or our future generations will pay an even higher cost for these short-term methods.

Indian needs to take rapid steps to boost infrastructure and promote it through private-public partnership otherwise inflation devil may totally go out of control. We need cheaper and 24 hour power. The power generation capacity is woefully short what was projected in last 5 year plan. We have not been able to bring enough private participation in power projects. Our SEBs are in financial mess, T&D losses highest in the world and collections for electricity bill are pathetic.
The golden quadrilateral road project is running out-of-schedule and will shortly start running in cost-overruns. Our irrigation network has not expanded enough and demands more money. The government is going to invest in irrigation network which is a good idea.

The solution is to bring telecom type private players in the market and carry the reforms in these sectors through government regulation. But one difference is that for infrastructure projects, the main input is land and it changes the whole picture. Land acquisition brings politics and rehabilitation issues and halts these projects. The government needs to be fast on rehabilitation laws and needs to finalize it with long-term vision. It is easier said than done.

2) One issue is our top institution doesn’t work. Our honorary members of parliament are involved in bitter politics on different issues and try to resolve the issues by power rather than fruitful discussion in the parliament. It is detrimental to very basic fabric of democracy. Our politicians or members of parliaments lack basic values and are involved in cheap vote bank politics all the time. This politics is thrived through bitterness, unfair practices and ‘might is right’ rules rather than driven by efficiency and honesty. Our top institution has diluted its values and integrity by successful and unwanted marriage of politics and criminals which goes back to slow judiciary processes. A person can fight elections till his guilt is proved in a court of law. The criminals are very well educated that how they can slow down these processes even further through their might.

Remember: Each minute of parliament session costs INR 20,000.

Coming to slow judicial processes, India is still very much a jungle raj. If your near relative is a politician or top bureaucrat, the whole country has to come together to get punishment for you for any gross wrong doing. Priyadarshan Matto case and many other pending cases are glaring examples.

I am very much convinced if income tax department starts its work honestly and efficiently against top politicians and bureaucrats, India doesn’t need to charge tax to its citizens for at least one year. This country can be a total-tax-free-country for one whole year. It is one more example.

We are a very inefficient country when it comes to implementation of law. This country needs discipline and it has to start from each segment of the society.

3) Cricket: The time has come when Indian public has to look for other sources of entertainment rather than hurting their emotions for these 15 useless fellows and a BCCI which runs Cricket in this country.

These 15 men are not accountable to this country and its people. BCCI made this point amply clear in the court. So, why should they should be answerable to the public and care for the 1 billion people who wake and sleep following cricket. These men are accountable to BCCI and have done more than enough to bring revenues to their employers. BCCI is growing faster than top companies of India.

This team doesn’t have zeal to win. They want other team to loose the game rather than they win it. They hardly show fight. They can’t bat on fast pitches (look what happened in South Africa) and they can’t bat on slow pitches. So, the real question is whether they can bat on any surface to win matches?

The fundamental question is if they want to work hard? Why will I work hard if I have earned enough for my grandsons and achieved a GOD like status among 1 billion people? Why I should listen to my coach and remove the weakness in my batting? The whole world knows how Mr. Tendulkar is susceptible to incoming delivery. My mind goes back to Lahore test match in 2004 where Umar Gul claimed Sachin out through an incoming delivery and their coach, Javed Miandad revealed this fact in media. I have seen Sachin getting out in the similar fashion on many occasions. Has he done anything about it? And if Mr. Tendulkar can’t win crucial games for India, he is not good enough to be in the team. Scoring runs against depleted attacks is one thing and scoring a marvelous century in world cup final match (like Ponting and Arvinda Desilva) is a separate thing all together.

Why things don’t happen for team India in field? Is there a co-relation between non performance on the field and the attitude? Rahul Dravid doesn’t need a McKinsey like consultancy to put fielders in short cover and short mid wicket to stop singles. Mahela Jaywardhane applied the same fielding from the very first over and put pressure on Indian batsmen on an easing pitch. Rahul Dravid fails to impress that his thinking cap is on all the time. He looks helpless in the field and totally out of control of the proceedings. He looks searching for answers rather than asking the tough questions to the opposition. My soul was screaming when Lankans were taking singles on each delivery and our fielders in 30-yard circle were mute spectators. These singles and 'Hang on, We can do it' attitude were the difference in the end.

There are many questions which will go unanswered. India will go to Bangladesh in May and win all the matches. The ho-ho spirit will be back and a new coach will be making strategy for 2011 world cup probably with a new captain.

On a comical note: Our reforms in fielding department are on for last ten years now. I had heard Azharuddin talking about it and we still talk about improvements. Well! We still can't hit stumps directly as Aussies do. I don't know what it takes to do - apart from dedicated training sessions and offcource, an willingness to do so.

Monday, March 05, 2007

A perspective on current affairs

If I look at budget and stock market, the government just did the right thing. It would have been better had the govt. offered one or two leeways to the corporate world. Though it was good to have these 'goodies', it was not essential.

It is time to correct the most fundamental problem: Agriculture. Allocating money will not suffice, it is time to correct the implementation part otherwise inflation will go out of control and RBI can't do anything about it. Agriculture reforms are two folds: 1) Increase farm productivity and get better with supply-demand projections. 2) Decrease human capital involved in Agriculture and put them to manufacturing. Tata Motor 'Singhur' project is the first step in this direction.

It will benefit in more than one way: 1) The country is creating more people whose consumption will increase because their statndard of living will go high due to an unofrom cash flow through out the year. 2) Political reforms will start happening because the fundamental vote bank will be transformed.

My conclusions on benefits may be far fetched but it is what India needs now and we have to go in this direction.

'How these reforms are carried out' will be interesting to see but investment in Agriculture and rural infrastructure will take India forward here on.

Share Market: I don't see any point why you should not invest if you are committed for 2-3 years. I am investing right now because stock prices are at mouth watering level. As I beleive, the bull is in Indian economy and not in the Indian stock market, therefore, I am investing in Indian economy. One concern is Real State. Real state will go into consolidation phase where small entities will not survive because cost of money has gone up. It may take a toll on Bank's NPAs but strong regulatory control of RBI should take us through.

We need to be vigilant on Current Account Deficit and ensure that foreign currency keeps flowing in India. Mrs. Sonia Gandhi has given a decisive blow by holding Bharti-Walmart retail initiative. It will send a wrong message to the world. FIIs are sceptical of government moves after Congress defeat in two states. Here, we have to see what Dr. Singh does...Does he act like a typical congress leader (what Sonia will force him to do) or behave like a reformist economist who will emphasis more on agriculture and rural infrstructure. Dr. Singh can balance economy and politics only in this way and that is what this year budget told us too.

I am still bullish on Indian market and economy.

Let me have your views.

Saturday, February 17, 2007

Weekend Musings

1)The RBI governor came out with quarterly review of monetary policy and did a mild correction. The bankers and markets were betting on another hike in CRR and squeezing the money supply, but RBI governor took a toned out measured step which will do no harm to anybody.

RBI governor declared in a way that we can’t tackle inflation by monetary policy alone. What we need to realize that Agriculture has stricken back. The supply-demand mismatch for food grains is responsible for price hike and hence, increasing inflation.

However, RBI surprised all of us when it declared another 1% (in a phased manner) hike in CRR which will suck out INR 27,000 Crore from the system. I have a question here and I want a logical answer. Our big ticket companies (Large and Mid Cap) are taking ECB (external commercial borrowing) route and borrowing from foreign countries. The RBI has not put any restriction on ECB yet. It means that money is coming into country through ECB. Then why RBI is making money costlier for common man and small scale industries? Why the small and medium businesses, retail consumers and all the chaps clubbed under “priority sector” category (farmers, truck owners, traders, petty shopkeepers etc) should pay more cost to get money? This is a ridiculous decision. Why RBI and government are out on a killing spree to murder small and budding business enterprises? Can Mr. Reddy or Mr. Chidambaram or Dr. Singh or Mrs. Gandhi explain it?

2)Let’s discuss about what government did about food grains supply demand. The agriculture sector is paying for its negligence and its status shows the true picture of India. Why True Picture? Because 50% Indians are still 100% dependent on agriculture income and the picture has not changed much for these Indians though the time has changed, the governments have changed, the policies have changed. These 50% Indians are ‘Aam Aadmi’ of India. What has not changed is poor implementation of policies, rampant corruption, and low level of education, public investment and absence of efficient corporations in the agriculture sector.
From Nehru to Shastri to Indira Gandhi to Sonia Gandhi, the message is clear – concern for the Aam Aadmi. It is a different matter that in last six decades, most of these politicians have upgraded their status to palatial bungalows in national and state capitals, replete with Jacuzzis and round-the-clock commandos for themselves and their relatives. Their personal choice of vehicles has now changed to Bentleys cars for self use and for gifts to their near and dear ones, while the preferred health destination is London or New York.
Let’s talk about our favorite Aam Aadmi. What has changed for him in last six decades? His children have no access to basic education, he has 100% dependency on Agriculture, He doesn’t had any health care centre but a broken building where dogs don’t take shelter until the outside weather is very harsh. His preferred mode of transportation is Bus (if he is lucky and his village is near to a road) or his barren foot.
Now do we have a court or any mechanism to punish all the politicians and bureaucrats responsible for sorry state of Aam Aadmi and filthy rich status of politicians and bureaucrats? First of all, will Congress take majority of responsibility for the sorry state of Aam Aadmi and come out to explain how much wealth their politicians have? Our bureaucrats have been involved in this party which is not yet over and probably will be never over. Let us remember that our bureaucrats are most intelligent (supposedly) men of the country and most corrupt as well. Our country gives enormous protection to civil servants which no other country in the world does!! Let me explain how. Article 311 in our constitution says no civil servant can be dismissed except after an enquiry. It sounds fair except that such enquiries rarely lead to dismissal. The net effect is once you join a government, central or state; you are there for the life, never mind whether you work or not and are corrupt to the bone.
The origin of this provision lies in the Montagu-Chelmsford reforms of 1919, when under diarchy; Indians were given a minor share in power. The British wanted to protect Indian Civil Servants from the natives, and hence this protection.
Sometimes, I wonder if Ms. Sonia Gandhi takes a casual walk in the streets of present day modern and rural India. She will realize what India is all about. I don’t think this lady has slight idea about India but she is taking rather forcing decisions on Government. Wal-Mart is not allowed (or FDI in Retail is not allowed) but our government allows Reliance to sell vegetables and fruits (I have nothing against Reliance)? Why? Don’t give me logic that Reliance is Indian company…This is golden crap or elegant stupidity. Can I expect a logical answer from our super Prime Minister Lady? The same goes true for SEZ. She makes super elegant stupid comments and judgments which come from her coterie of leaders who are nothing but pimps of businessmen.

Our political parties, in particular, big national parties are not democratic. Look at Congress; it dances to the tune of Ms. Sonia Gandhi. She is number one, number two and number three in Congress leadership. Where is democracy in Congress? BJP is commanded by RSS…BJP leaders will not accept it but it is as true as the son is commanded by his father who still can’t take his own decisions to run home.

3)Let me bring something else to our notice. It is very sad, in fact pathetic to know that standards of deciding poverty are not same for different ministries of Central Governments even after 60 years of independence. Why our ministers and IAS officers could not get time in last 60 years to sit down and define the uniform standards to measure poverty? The Union Ministry of Rural Development and the Union Ministry of Food and Civil Supplies have different sets of BPL figures in Bihar due to different parameters to measure poverty. After several rounds of discussion with rural development ministry, 65 lakh families in Bihar have been declared BPL. But the food and civil supplies ministry has just 50 lakh BPL families on its list and has made arrangements to supply food grains accordingly. Because there is no agreement on figures, 35 lakh desperately poor families in Bihar have been deprived of BPL status and the concurrent benefits.

4)Aussies have been beaten by 10 wickets. It has been the best news from Cricket world to me in last 2-3 years. This team needs to bring down on ground and should be sent to primary schools to learn politeness and behave like a man. Hayden was very happy with the comment that ‘Aussies attack like a bunch of hounded dogs’. Now they have become poor dogs who can’t bark till they win their next match. I had read about Clive Lloyd team who was better (that’s my view) than this Australian team but never behaved against the spirit of gentleman behavior. They were bunch of elegant men who never attacked their opponent’s dignity on or off the field. Leave attack; they never uttered bad words for their opponents and respected them. I will like to bring history in picture. Australians don’t like to talk about their history but I see their hounded dog’s like behavior emanating from their history.

Anyway, Australians were bound to start downward journey but it has came at the worst time for them. I hope they continue their bad run so that entertainment value of Australia matches go high.

Sunday, January 07, 2007

Test Series Win in Africa...Still a mirage!

Yesterday when India started a wild goose chase to defend 210 runs, two things came to my mind and I was pretty much convinced that India will face defeat:

1)Rahul Dravid contribution was missing as a batsman
2)Graeme Smith played an expansive drive in the very first over of Zaheer Khan on the fifth day morning. Ravi Shastri commented, ”Had Zaheer Khan plucked one hair from his head and attached to the ball, the ball would have clipped the off stump bail.” I too witnessed it. My point is : fortune was favoring the brave on the fifth day morning.

If we look at the broader level, Indians didn’t have the stomach to fight when South Africans challenged them. It happened in second innings of all the tests. Indians were touch lucky in first test match where South Africa slumped to 84 in first innings before they noticed what was going wrong.

I missed Rahul Dravid contribution as a batsman in the whole series. Rahul Dravid is the only fighter in this team, who has the attitude and stomach to play an innings which can (and has) put India in winning position overseas. He kills the sting in the match in his own way. He frustrates the opposition, works out multiple hundred partnerships, spends the time in the middle and ensures that India will not loose the game. Yes, if bowlers can claim ten wickets in time, India can win the match. He is a true leader to win the overseas matches. I don’t recall if our other batsmen have led the way.

I can remember many instances where India has won test matches. Rahul Dravid has led the way as a batsman:

1) 115 against England on first day morning in Headingley.
2) 270 against Pakistan in Rawalpindi
3) 233 and 72 against Australia in Adelaide
4) Two half centuries against West Indies where India won the test match and series. You may like to have a relook at the scorecard; Rahul Dravid played more number of balls than whole West Indies team in the first innings!!!

As I mentioned before, Rahul Dravid didn’t play a single innings in whole test series which can outplay the opposition and I very well know, no other Indian batsman can play a match winning innings. VVS Laxman played one against Aussies in Kolkata; however, it will be unreasonable to expect him to reproduce that magic each time he takes guard. Sachin Tendulkar will definitely feel that he created two opportunities but he got out (or thrown away his wicket?) and this is what Rahul Dravid never does. Once he creates an opportunity, he never let it slip and builds the innings brick by brick for the team. It has never been the case with Tendulkar. He always looks edgy or likely to get out even when he has crossed 50 runs. It is happening more often now. He has gone to shell in the fourth innings on a number of times and failed to lead the way. Sometimes, I feel he is too afraid of the bowlers or too submissive to the fate that he even refuses to put a brave fight. He comes out with a timid show and eventually looses his wicket in an embarrassing way after a more embarrassed batting display.

How you should bat in fourth innings: Indian batsmen can learn from South African batsmen who chased 210 with caution and yet they were aggressive. They never went into their shell but played each ball on merit. At the end of day, they didn’t forget the basic fundamental: A batsman stands on a pitch to score runs. Whatever he does, save or win the match, he has to score runs and this is what our middle order fails to understand. Indian middle order pulls pressure on themselves by not rotating the strike, not putting bad balls to boundaries and not attacking the weak link in the bowling. One has to compete all the time against the top team if you have to win against them. One can’t slip into no-action zone with a false premise that it will save the match. A team may choose to be aggressive with varying intensity based on the match situation but being submissive is like accepting the defeat and giving the winning edge to opposition. I feel our middle order succumbs to same phenomena in a do-or-die situation. This is how I would like to explain myself many defeats that India conceded after taking lead in overseas test series.

Rahul Dravid will definitely feel that he lost the test series more than South Africa won it. Faulty team selection, bearing the repeated failures and throwing the wickets away at the crucial junctures proved too much and you can’t make so many mistakes against a formidable opposition.

I am happy with one decision of BCCI (at last!!). Mr. Dilip Vengasarkar has asked every player to participate in ongoing Ranji Trophy season. It will benefit our current players who have forgotten to build innings on a fifth day pitch and increase the level of competition in the matches.