Tuesday, March 27, 2007

What India should do?

So, what BCCI will do now? That’s one question crossing every Indian cricket fan. That’s a positive sign for corporate!!! Indian can’t quit thinking about cricket. Right now we have 50 million opinions in India. I am also one of them.

I will again go back to my old point that I discussed after Indian debacle in South Africa. BCCI goes for a short term solution or a long term solution.

India is not short of talent in Cricket but our cricketers lack character. A character is built in adversity and competitive environment. Our institution of domestic cricket is ordinary. It may create good players who look good on Indian pitches but it can’t give you a strong character unit like Australia.

Would you like to see an organization run by people who are part time members and the organization generates close to $1 billion revenue per year? I don’t think any management thinking or any sensible individual will endorse to the view the way our sports organizations are operating on a day-to-day basis. Probably this attitude explains number of Olympic medals won by this 1 billion population country in last 60 years.

The reforms must start from BCCI. Government should stop recognizing BCCI as an autonomous body. It was created to promote Cricket in India which has been accomplished. Now, this body should be dismantled.

Instead government should create a corporate body responsible for cricket. If possible, this corporation should be listed in Share market but government should not become the owner. I guess many corporate will be interested in acquiring the ownership and it can be decided by a fair and comprehensive process.

The corporation should be responsible for overall development and administration of cricket. As I believe this corporation will be governed by able professionals and India have plenty of excellent leaders and managers who will be interested to work for this organization. Listing it on share market will boost people’s interest in share market and at least one crore more investors will join share market which will be definitely better for our bourses. India has currently approximately 4 crore people out of 100 crore who invest in equities either directly or through other various financial instruments.

The domestic cricket structure needs a major boost. I watch Ranji trophy and other domestic tournaments on Neo sports and it tells the true level of cricket competitiveness and standard. BCCI has least bothered to attract people to watch these games. The key lies here. Once you attract people to these games, the competition and character will start coming to teams.

The number of teams should be limited. Not more than 4 or 5. The new corporation should ensure a time period when this tournament will be held and participation of top cricketers must be mandatory.

This also calls for pitch reforms. The pitches for these matches should be fast and varying in nature. Then you have a domestic infrastructure in place to select top 15 players.

The team selection process should be changed as well. You have 3 selectors who decide the team and then the captain…not other way round. Had this been the case, Ganguly would have been out of the team after 2003 world cup and many individuals who cried after Srilanka game would have been playing either domestic cricket or county cricket in England.

These are sweeping reforms. People at top hate reforms in this country. This reform may take time to settle and produce results but it will ensure that we don’t feel ashamed after each tour of South Africa and Australia.

Listing the corporation on share market will ensure accountability to the public and public will feel a part of Indian cricket. At present, fans (the customers of BCCI) are last consideration for BCCI. If you don’t believe it, buy a one day international ticket and enjoy your experience in the stadium. It is pathetic right from ticket purchase to last ball bowled.

Now, let’s look at our current team. This team has performed pathetically in every foreign tour from West Indies to South Africa to Malaysia (except Pakistan). It has performed badly in champion trophy. That performance should have been enough to draw attention but we start reacting when water goes above the head and breathing becomes impossible. We wait and wait till the situation becomes worst.

The game at top level is played by character and attitude, talent becomes secondary because every team has plenty of it. The tough character comes through difficult experiences…at least not when you hit knee-roll high balls to boundary 40 times a day in a Ranji trophy game against a weak opposition. You may be given opportunity to open Indian innings in test match in Australia after scoring triple century against Tripura but nobody remembers your name thereafter. I was talking about Devang Gandhi.

One typical case is Mr. Agarkar who even after 183 one day matches looks mediocre on many days. He performs once in a while and claims his place back? Why? Because we simply don’t have enough players or we don’t believe them good enough to replace Pathans and Agarkars. Murali Kartik is gone… he could have been definitely a good replacement for Anil Kumble and Ramesh Powar for Harbhajan Singh! Alas! We are so obsessed with brands that when it comes to crunch tournaments, we go by brand names rather than current form. Pathan selection is a typical example…he was selected and not selected…both are true. These men at BCCI are so confused!!!

India needs fresh blood and confident men who believe in destroying opposition and in hanging on 50 overs on any pitch. My next captain is Yuvraj; he has played more than 150 one dayers and has enough experience. Rahul Dravid may be retained in the team as a batsman, but not Ganguly, Shehwag and Tendulkar. Mohd Kaif should be back as vice captain.
BCCI has more data and information to select rest of the team. Munaf Patel and Sreesaanth should be retained. Rest of the lot should decide what they want to do next in life.
You may disagree with my team but my emphasis is on reforms and selecting 11 men who believe in themselves to beat any team on any pitch and they do it day-in and day-out. Even if, everybody in this country agrees to my reform agenda, we will take at least 5-6 years to produce results. Australians were patient…they invested close to 10 years to become number 1.

You may also take a deep breath after reading and say “come on – it is just a game!” You are also right.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Inflation, Infrastructure and Defeat

1) Inflation refuses to die. It is becoming a structural or systematic problem rather than a one-off issue. The Indian economy is growing over more than 8% annually but our infrastructure growth is not able to keep pace. Our capacity is restrained with respect to demand leading to price rises.

RBI should not keep squeezing liquidity in the system. The top policy makers should device a law for lending money but they should not suck liquidity across the board. This will kill the growth. I think RBI governor should be convinced by now that merely squeezing the liquidity will not control inflation. Let Agriculture and other ministries wake up and take appropriate measures to control inflation.

Controlling inflation through short-term methods will aggravate the problem in the long run and remember, we are paying a cost for it or our future generations will pay an even higher cost for these short-term methods.

Indian needs to take rapid steps to boost infrastructure and promote it through private-public partnership otherwise inflation devil may totally go out of control. We need cheaper and 24 hour power. The power generation capacity is woefully short what was projected in last 5 year plan. We have not been able to bring enough private participation in power projects. Our SEBs are in financial mess, T&D losses highest in the world and collections for electricity bill are pathetic.
The golden quadrilateral road project is running out-of-schedule and will shortly start running in cost-overruns. Our irrigation network has not expanded enough and demands more money. The government is going to invest in irrigation network which is a good idea.

The solution is to bring telecom type private players in the market and carry the reforms in these sectors through government regulation. But one difference is that for infrastructure projects, the main input is land and it changes the whole picture. Land acquisition brings politics and rehabilitation issues and halts these projects. The government needs to be fast on rehabilitation laws and needs to finalize it with long-term vision. It is easier said than done.

2) One issue is our top institution doesn’t work. Our honorary members of parliament are involved in bitter politics on different issues and try to resolve the issues by power rather than fruitful discussion in the parliament. It is detrimental to very basic fabric of democracy. Our politicians or members of parliaments lack basic values and are involved in cheap vote bank politics all the time. This politics is thrived through bitterness, unfair practices and ‘might is right’ rules rather than driven by efficiency and honesty. Our top institution has diluted its values and integrity by successful and unwanted marriage of politics and criminals which goes back to slow judiciary processes. A person can fight elections till his guilt is proved in a court of law. The criminals are very well educated that how they can slow down these processes even further through their might.

Remember: Each minute of parliament session costs INR 20,000.

Coming to slow judicial processes, India is still very much a jungle raj. If your near relative is a politician or top bureaucrat, the whole country has to come together to get punishment for you for any gross wrong doing. Priyadarshan Matto case and many other pending cases are glaring examples.

I am very much convinced if income tax department starts its work honestly and efficiently against top politicians and bureaucrats, India doesn’t need to charge tax to its citizens for at least one year. This country can be a total-tax-free-country for one whole year. It is one more example.

We are a very inefficient country when it comes to implementation of law. This country needs discipline and it has to start from each segment of the society.

3) Cricket: The time has come when Indian public has to look for other sources of entertainment rather than hurting their emotions for these 15 useless fellows and a BCCI which runs Cricket in this country.

These 15 men are not accountable to this country and its people. BCCI made this point amply clear in the court. So, why should they should be answerable to the public and care for the 1 billion people who wake and sleep following cricket. These men are accountable to BCCI and have done more than enough to bring revenues to their employers. BCCI is growing faster than top companies of India.

This team doesn’t have zeal to win. They want other team to loose the game rather than they win it. They hardly show fight. They can’t bat on fast pitches (look what happened in South Africa) and they can’t bat on slow pitches. So, the real question is whether they can bat on any surface to win matches?

The fundamental question is if they want to work hard? Why will I work hard if I have earned enough for my grandsons and achieved a GOD like status among 1 billion people? Why I should listen to my coach and remove the weakness in my batting? The whole world knows how Mr. Tendulkar is susceptible to incoming delivery. My mind goes back to Lahore test match in 2004 where Umar Gul claimed Sachin out through an incoming delivery and their coach, Javed Miandad revealed this fact in media. I have seen Sachin getting out in the similar fashion on many occasions. Has he done anything about it? And if Mr. Tendulkar can’t win crucial games for India, he is not good enough to be in the team. Scoring runs against depleted attacks is one thing and scoring a marvelous century in world cup final match (like Ponting and Arvinda Desilva) is a separate thing all together.

Why things don’t happen for team India in field? Is there a co-relation between non performance on the field and the attitude? Rahul Dravid doesn’t need a McKinsey like consultancy to put fielders in short cover and short mid wicket to stop singles. Mahela Jaywardhane applied the same fielding from the very first over and put pressure on Indian batsmen on an easing pitch. Rahul Dravid fails to impress that his thinking cap is on all the time. He looks helpless in the field and totally out of control of the proceedings. He looks searching for answers rather than asking the tough questions to the opposition. My soul was screaming when Lankans were taking singles on each delivery and our fielders in 30-yard circle were mute spectators. These singles and 'Hang on, We can do it' attitude were the difference in the end.

There are many questions which will go unanswered. India will go to Bangladesh in May and win all the matches. The ho-ho spirit will be back and a new coach will be making strategy for 2011 world cup probably with a new captain.

On a comical note: Our reforms in fielding department are on for last ten years now. I had heard Azharuddin talking about it and we still talk about improvements. Well! We still can't hit stumps directly as Aussies do. I don't know what it takes to do - apart from dedicated training sessions and offcource, an willingness to do so.

Monday, March 05, 2007

A perspective on current affairs

If I look at budget and stock market, the government just did the right thing. It would have been better had the govt. offered one or two leeways to the corporate world. Though it was good to have these 'goodies', it was not essential.

It is time to correct the most fundamental problem: Agriculture. Allocating money will not suffice, it is time to correct the implementation part otherwise inflation will go out of control and RBI can't do anything about it. Agriculture reforms are two folds: 1) Increase farm productivity and get better with supply-demand projections. 2) Decrease human capital involved in Agriculture and put them to manufacturing. Tata Motor 'Singhur' project is the first step in this direction.

It will benefit in more than one way: 1) The country is creating more people whose consumption will increase because their statndard of living will go high due to an unofrom cash flow through out the year. 2) Political reforms will start happening because the fundamental vote bank will be transformed.

My conclusions on benefits may be far fetched but it is what India needs now and we have to go in this direction.

'How these reforms are carried out' will be interesting to see but investment in Agriculture and rural infrastructure will take India forward here on.

Share Market: I don't see any point why you should not invest if you are committed for 2-3 years. I am investing right now because stock prices are at mouth watering level. As I beleive, the bull is in Indian economy and not in the Indian stock market, therefore, I am investing in Indian economy. One concern is Real State. Real state will go into consolidation phase where small entities will not survive because cost of money has gone up. It may take a toll on Bank's NPAs but strong regulatory control of RBI should take us through.

We need to be vigilant on Current Account Deficit and ensure that foreign currency keeps flowing in India. Mrs. Sonia Gandhi has given a decisive blow by holding Bharti-Walmart retail initiative. It will send a wrong message to the world. FIIs are sceptical of government moves after Congress defeat in two states. Here, we have to see what Dr. Singh does...Does he act like a typical congress leader (what Sonia will force him to do) or behave like a reformist economist who will emphasis more on agriculture and rural infrstructure. Dr. Singh can balance economy and politics only in this way and that is what this year budget told us too.

I am still bullish on Indian market and economy.

Let me have your views.